Quantitative Methods for Public Management

Lecturer

Dr. Rotem Dvir

Email: rdvir@tamu.edu.

Website: https://rotemdvir.wixsite.com/mysite

Course Description

This is a graduate course in quantitative social science research methods. We will learn how to construct research designs and use quantitative data to tackle a variety of questions in politics as a whole, and international affairs in particular. For example, What is the best way to predict election outcomes? What factors drive the onset of wars? What is the likelihood of a successful sanctions regime? In addition, some class sessions will offer an introduction to basic statistical skills to conduct research in the social sciences.
The course integrates discussions about research design and data analysis with the focus on causal reasoning. It also emphasizes learning and practicing the skills to become proficient in the use of statistical software to manage and analyze data. Students submit tasks in which they design research relevant to their field of interest, practice programming, and prepare a final project that combines data analysis with policy relevance into a data-oriented infographic as well as a professional document📃.

Course Material

Textbook: Imai, Kosuke. (2017). Quantitative Social Science: An Introduction.

Syllabus: Spring2023.

Tasks and Assignments

• Swirl HW assignments: Instructions.
• Swirl tasks submission times: Swirl Timeline.
• Working with R - Class Tasks: BAAD Data.
• Working with R - Class Tasks: Task 1 Code.
• Working with R - Class Tasks: Task 2 Code.
• Working with R - Class Tasks: Task 3 Markdown.
• Working with R - R Markdown: Prep Markdown Template.
• Working with R - R Markdown: Editing Markdown Docx.
• Final Project: Instructions.

Additional Resources

International Affairs Analysis

• Recommended websites: War on the Rocks; Political Violence at a Glance;Monkey Cage; The Conversation.
• Recommended podcasts: Paul Poast Pod; Intellignece Matters; IS: Off the Page; Chain Reaction(FPRI); Brookings Cafeteria; WOTR Pod.

Course Schedule and Content

Week 1 (01.17.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 1 (pp. 1-31).
• Slides: QSS & Intro to R.
• R code: Week1.
• Data: Ags.

Week 2 (01.24.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 2 (pp. 32-54, sections 2.1-2.4).
• Recommended Reading: Mattes, Michaela and Jessica Weeks (2019). “Hawks, Doves, and Peace: An Experimental Approach.” American Journal of Political Science, 63 (1), pp. 53-66.
• Slides: Causality Vol. I.
• R code: Week2.
• R Tech: Wk2 Tech.
• Data: Ags.

Week 3 (01.31.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 2 (pp. 54-74, sections 2.5-2.8).
• Recommended Reading: Fuhrmann, Matthew, and Michael Horowitz. (2015). “When leaders matter: Rebel experience and nuclear proliferation.” The Journal of Politics, 77(1), 72-87.
• Slides: Causality Vol. II.
• R code: Week3.
• R Tech: Wk3 Tech.
• Data: Rebels.

Week 4 (02.07.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 3 (pp. 75-96, sections 3.1-3.4).
• Recommended Reading: Sagan, S., & Benjamin Valentino. (2018). “Not just a war theory: American public opinion on ethics in combat.” International Studies Quarterly, 62(3), 548-561.
• Recommended reading: Dvir, R., Geva, N., & Arnold Vedlitz. (2021). “Unpacking Public Perceptions of Terrorism: Does Type of Attack Matter?.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 1-21.
• Slides: Measurement Vol. I.
• R code: Week4.
• Data: War Ethics.
• Data: Terror survey.
• Data: Afghan Villages.

Week 5 (02.14.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 3 (pp. 96-122, sections 3.5-3.8).
• Recommended Reading: Huff, C., and Joshua Kertzer. (2018). “How the public defines terrorism.” American Journal of Political Science, 62(1), 55-71.
• Slides: Measurement Vol. II.
• R code: Week5.
• Data: US Congress.
• Data: UN Voting.

Week 6 (02.21.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 4 (pp. 123-139, section 4.1).
• Recommended Reading: GAO Report. (2021). “Defense Budget: Opportunities Exist to Improve DOD’s Management of Defense Spending.” US government accountability office website.
• Slides: Prediction Vol. I.
• R code: Week6.
• Data: Military Spending1.
• Data: Military Spending2.
• Data: Military Aid.

Week 7 (02.28.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 4 (pp. 139-161, section 4.2).
• Recommended Reading: Doces, J. and Magee, C. (2015). “Trade and Democracy: A Factor-Based Approach.” International Interactions, 41,2: 407-425.
• Slides: Prediction Vol. II.
• R code: Week7.
• Data: Face.
• Data: Health.
• Data: Trade.
• Data: FL Votes.

Week 8 (03.07.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 4 (ppp. 161-182, section 4.3).
• Recommended Reading: Wood, T., Hoy, C., and Pryke, J. (2021). “The Effect of Geostrategic Competition on Public Attitudes to Aid.”, Journal of Experimental Political Science, 8(3), 285-295.
• Recommended Reading: Fuhrmann, M. (2020). “When Do Leaders Free-Ride? Business Experience and Contributions to Collective Defense”, American Journal of Political Science, 64(2), 416-431.
• Slides: Prediction Vol. III.
• R code: Week8.
• Data: Women Leaders
• Data: Aussie.
• Data: Int’l Crisis.
• Data: NATO I.
• Data: NATO II.

Week 9 (03.21.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 6 (pp. 242-277, sections 6.1-6.2).
• Recommended Reading: Edry, J., Johnson, J. and Ashley Leeds. (2021). “Threats at Home and Abroad: Interstate War, Civil War, and Alliance Formation.” International Organization, 75(3), 837-957.
• Slides: Probability Vol. I.
• R code: Week9.
• Data: AggiesNFL.
• Data: ATOP Alliances.

Week 10 (03.28.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 6 (pp. 277-313, sections 6.3-6.5).
• Recommended Reading: Horowitz, M., McDermott, R., and Alan Stam. (2005). “Leader age, regime type, and violent international relations.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49(5), 661-685.
• Slides: Probability Vol. II.
• R code: Week10.
• R Tech: Wk10 Tech.
• Data: AggiesNFL.
• Data: Leaders Age.

Week 11 (04.04.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 7 (pp. 314-342, section 7.1).
• Recommended Reading: Robinson, Kali. (2021). “What is the the Iran Nuclear Deal?” Council of Foreign Relations website.
• Recommended Reading: Smeltz, D., Farmanesh, A., and Brendon Helm. (2021). “Iranians and Americans Support A Mutual Return to JCPOA.” The Chicago Council on Global Affairs Report.
• Slides: Uncertainty Vol. I.
• R code: Week11.

Week 12 (04.11.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 7 (pp. 342-369, section 7.2).
• Recommended Reading: Scotto, T. J., & Reifler, J. (2017). “Getting tough with the dragon? The comparative correlates of foreign policy attitudes toward China in the United States and UK.” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 17(2), 265-299.
• Slides: Uncertainty Vol. II.
• R code: Week12.
• Data: FP Leaders

Week 13 (04.18.2023)

• Required Reading: QSS, Ch. 7 (pp. 370-390, section 7.3).
• Recommended Reading: Miller, S. (2014). “Reading a Regression Table: A Guide for Students”, Steven Miller blog.
• Slides: Uncertainty Vol. III.